Deciphering the Numbers behind GE-13:
Why Pakatan Rakyat Won the Election but Still Lost Parliament
Barisan Nasional (BN)
– 133 Pakatan Rakyat (PR) –
89
These two numbers will forever be etched in the
memory of many Malaysians, and years from now, we will still remember how they emerged
against all odds to defer our hope for a better Malaysia. However, these two
numbers representing the number of parliamentary seats won by each side are in
fact a façade that oversimplifies the election result and masks the reality of
an inherently flawed electoral system.
On the surface, the distribution of
parliamentary seats suggests that BN has won the election with a 60% majority
while the remaining 40% goes to PR. Yet if winning an election means getting
the most votes, then with a total of more than 5.6 million votes for
parliamentary seats, PR has actually defeated BN, which has garnered a total of
only 5.2 million votes.
The Puzzling Distribution of Constituencies
While all eyes are trained on the
delible “indelible ink”, the imported voters, and the blackouts, BN strikes out
with a hidden dagger (or keris, in
the case of UMNO)—the uneven distribution of constituencies, or in a fancier
term, gerrymandering.
Studying the election results, I was
surprised at how many parliamentary seats there are in Sabah and Sarawak. The
two states may be geographically larger, but they are also less densely
populated. With a little more than 1 million (1,083,972) voters, Sarawak has 31
parliamentary seats while Sabah, with a little less than 1 million voters
(981,814), is represented by 25 parliamentary seats. Hence, it makes little
sense that a densely populated state like Selangor that has over 2 million
voters (2,048,828) is given only 22 parliamentary seats.
What this then translates into is
smaller constituencies in Sabah and Sarawak and larger ones in dense states
like Selangor. The sizes of constituencies in Sabah range from 24,000 to 53,000
voters, and the sizes of constituencies in Sarawak range from 17,000 to 84,000
voters. However, in Selangor, the smallest constituency has more than 37,000
voters while the largest one has more than 144,000 voters. Therefore, the
largest constituency in Selangor is almost 3 times bigger than the largest one
in Sabah. In addition, there are also 8 constituencies in Selangor with more
than 100,000 voters.
The Unequal Weight of Each Individual Vote
Because each constituency is
represented by 1 parliamentary seat regardless of its size, the weight of each
individual vote cast varies depending on the size of the constituency in which
it was cast: the smaller the constituency, the more weight an individual vote
carries.
Let’s consider a comparison of the smallest and
the largest constituencies. With only 15,791 registered voters, Putrajaya
(P125) is the smallest constituency while Kapar (P109-Selangor) is the largest one
with 144,159 voters. Simple mathematics reveals that Kapar is 9 times as large
as Putrajaya. But because both constituencies are represented by 1
parliamentary seat each in spite of the difference in their respective sizes, 1
vote in Putrajaya carries 9 times as much weight as 1 vote in Kapar.
As a result of this uneven
distribution of electorates, BN won Putrajaya simply with 9,943 votes, but on
the other hand, PR won Kapar with a majority of 69,849 votes. Although PR
gained 7 times more votes in Kapar than BN did in Putrajaya, both were assigned
1 parliamentary seat each.
Underrepresenting the Urban Areas
The largest constituencies are often the ones
in urban areas. As many political analysts pointed out, the result of GE-13
shows that PR gained the support of middle- and upper-class urban voters while
BN retained the votes of those in rural areas. But through gerrymandering, BN
has managed to gain more parliamentary seats by winning a higher number of smaller
and less densely populated constituencies, particularly those in rural areas.
PR, on the other hand, won large amounts of votes from urban dwellers, but
these large numbers of voters are often lumped into densely populated
constituencies, resulting in a lower number of parliamentary seats for PR.
Let’s consider the example of
Sarawak, the state with the highest number of parliamentary seats. PR has won 4
out of the 5 largest parliamentary constituencies in Sarawak, all of which
consist of more than 50,000 voters. BN, on the other hand, won the remaining 21
parliamentary constituencies, all of which (except one) consist of less than
50,000 voters, the smallest constituency having only a little less than 18,000
voters.
In Sarawak, BN garnered approximately 481,000 total
votes while PR obtained approximately 304,000 votes. Translated into
percentage, the total number of votes cast for each party in Sarawak indicates
that BN won with a 61% majority as opposed to PR’s 39%. However, in terms of
the distribution of parliamentary seats, BN took 81% of the parliamentary seats
in Sarawak (25 out of 31) while PR took the remaining 19% (6 out of 31). There
is clearly a huge disparity between the percentage of votes won and the
percentage of parliamentary seats taken. Although I understand that, due to the
way our electoral system works, it is close to impossible for there to be a
one-to-one correlation, but nevertheless there should not be such a drastic difference
between the two.
The Real Issue behind GE-13
Yes, the delible “indelible ink”,
the imported voters, and the blackouts are problematic issues that need to be
addressed. They are blatant violations of the electoral laws. But even if the
indelible ink had been indelible, even if there were no illegal voters, even if
there had been no blackouts, and even if we had achieved 100% voter turnout, the
inherently problematic electoral system still ensured that the odds will always
be against PR taking over the parliament. Garnering 5.6 million votes as
opposed to BN’s 5.2 million, PR has in fact won GE-13 with a simple majority of
51%, but it still lost parliament due to the manipulation of constituency
distribution. Ultimately, in order to ensure that each individual vote bears
equal significance, the underlying issue that desperately needs to be addressed
is the distribution of parliamentary constituencies.
Author's note: The numbers in this article are either taken directly or calculated from the election results as published on www.myundi.com.my and SPR's official website (www.spr.gov.my).
